What trump has going for him is his unpredictability. So you could say hey he said 2 more weeks to give them false sense of security. Similar to Israels attack 9 days ago when US had talks scheduled. Or perhaps they had intelligence of Iran moving stuff out of attack site, or knew nothing would come of negotiations. Etc etc etc. I feel as though anything other than today was the 20+ year status quo, and Trump decided to give a real world use of gbu 57 ordinance, and change the stale nature of things. Might be a good idea to develop a bomb that weighs less than 30k pounds, only delivered by US, etc. Now is the time for this to happen, from a US POV

6/22/2025 1:00:10 AM

Quote :

"But who knows about all those ifs and how Trump and Co might have fucked away an opportunity to avoid this (aside from pulling out of the nuclear deal in his first term) "

I’m not even entertaining these Ifs. Has there been any credible evidence that Iran was building nuclear bombs? Has anyone outside the Trump and Netanyahu admins even made the claim? Not a chance in hell I’ll ever take anything from these admins as truth without some type of verification. The Iranians were probably enriching uranium, but I’m betting there is no evidence of weaponizing it.

I have not listened to all of Trump’s address and I don’t really go looking for the things Netanyahu is saying in speeches/media, but if you read between the lines, they are telegraphing they don’t really need concrete evidence to justify bombing. It’s why Trump spent several minutes of his speech reminding us about all the bad things Iranian proxies have done (IEDs, etc). They are bad guys and we are good guys, that’s their play. It will work. It helps that any evidence to disprove their claims of bomb making are probably smoking craters at this point.

6/22/2025 5:35:17 AM

Good news guys we’re not at war with Iran

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/trump-administration/vance-says-us-not-war-iran-re-war-irans-nuclear-program-rcna214329

6/22/2025 12:58:22 PM

Quote :

"So…if Iran really was imminently reaching breakout for a nuke, and we diligently exhausted our options with competent efforts at diplomacy, then I support striking them. I’d do that before I allowed them to become a nuclear power. But who knows about all those ifs and how Trump and Co might have fucked away an opportunity to avoid this (aside from pulling out of the nuclear deal in his first term)"

Who knows? Really? Satanyahu has been saying Iran is months away from a nuke every few years for the last 30 years.

Israel (and their proxies within the US government), and specifically, Satanyahu, control US foreign policy. That's the reality.

6/22/2025 2:24:02 PM

https://youtu.be/3Q08a7BI9XI?si=lEveVDIKcBrHPTOB

7:15

6/22/2025 7:48:23 PM

Quote :

"What trump has going for him is his unpredictability. So you could say hey he said 2 more weeks to give them false sense of security. Similar to Israels attack 9 days ago when US had talks scheduled. Or perhaps they had intelligence of Iran moving stuff out of attack site, or knew nothing would come of negotiations. Etc etc etc. I feel as though anything other than today was the 20+ year status quo, and Trump decided to give a real world use of gbu 57 ordinance, and change the stale nature of things. Might be a good idea to develop a bomb that weighs less than 30k pounds, only delivered by US, etc. Now is the time for this to happen, from a US POV "

I think this is missing the point. You don’t bomb another sovereign foreign country Period. This is a major violation— it’s a declaration of war. It makes Americans fair game now. Obama shouldn’t really have done it to get bin laden even but they built up good will before doing that and laid ground work. Trump shouldn’t have done it for sulemani. It actually gives the upper hand to Iran because they know America doesn’t want a war but they can force us into one now. They can activate their mutual defense pact with Russia.

But outside of this, it’s clear to everyone that Netanyahu forced or tricked trump into this. It makes the US look like a joke. We have no control over our foreign policy. Putin and China are licking their lips now.

6/22/2025 9:14:55 PM

Quote :

"I’m not even entertaining these Ifs. Has there been any credible evidence that Iran was building nuclear bombs? Has anyone outside the Trump and Netanyahu admins even made the claim?"

Yes, there is clear and plain evidence they are trying to build bombs. You don't enrich uranium-235 to 60+% if you aren't trying to build a bomb. Power plants use 3-5%, tops. The only use for anything that high is bombs, period.

I'm not saying they were on a breakout path, or "a couple months away," but they were *very plainly* trying to build bombs. That's not to say that this admin didn't fuck this up. But, I also don't even remotely trust this Iranian regime with nuclear weapons at all. It was always coming to this at some point

[Edited on June 22, 2025 at 9:42 PM. Reason : ]

6/22/2025 9:42:11 PM

6/22/2025 10:31:33 PM

^^You could enrich to 60% as a provocative political statement (cry for help) to the world regarding a certain other State continually sabotaging your domestic nuclear energy program.

6/22/2025 11:09:50 PM

I heard that Iran recently bought aluminum tubes and yellowcake.

6/23/2025 8:05:54 AM

^^
That seems to be exactly what Iran was going. It’s been 10 years since trump scrapped the Iran deal.

6/23/2025 8:22:24 AM

Just one assessment so far

Quote :

"CNN Exclusive: Early US intel suggests American strikes did not destroy Iran's nuclear sites and likely only set the program back by months, sources say. https://cnn.it/4nh2JUF "

6/24/2025 3:10:58 PM

Assumed fake news. Iran was wiped off the map. It is now called the Desert of America.

6/24/2025 3:40:27 PM

Quote :

"^^You could enrich to 60% as a provocative political statement (cry for help) to the world regarding a certain other State continually sabotaging your domestic nuclear energy program."

And monkeys might fly out of my butt, too. I'm not holding my breath on it.

Look, this isn't the kind of thing that you do just for shits. You don't turn the centrifuges on over night in a fit of rage and go from 5% enrichment to 60%. It's an incredibly expensive, difficult, and dangerous operation that takes a non-trivial amount of time (think: years). You don't do that as a "provocative political statement" because you're butthurt about Israel slapping your non-existent nuclear power plants around. You do it because you want to annihilate them.

None of this is to say that Israel's actions here are great, or that Cheeto scrapping the previous deal was a great idea. It's just to say that the notion they aren't trying to build a bomb is preposterous, when they are doing the very things you have to do to build a bomb.

6/24/2025 4:04:47 PM

It’s the reasoning that Iran has used to justify its enrichment to the international community. You don’t have to believe it, I only sorta do, but when Israel/US produce almost no evidence for their actions except the least trustworthy people on planet Earth telling you to “Trust me, Bro,” well, it makes Iran look like the rational actor here

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-56743560

Trump rips up JCPOA - Iran announces it is enriching to 20%
Israel cyber attacks Natansz (conveniently when Biden is negotiating a new agreement) - Iran announces it is enriching to 60%

We still have no evidence Iran can shape Uranium or build the necessary pre-detonation devices required to actually manufacture a nuclear bomb, only that they can enrich uranium.

6/24/2025 6:00:53 PM