I just listened to the news. The issue is that the models keep drying out. So, expect less than they are warning and you won't be disappointed.

1/18/2008 10:46:34 PM

Does that include what is predicted for charlotte?

1/18/2008 10:47:44 PM

didn't read the last page

i'd be happy to see anything.

[Edited on January 18, 2008 at 10:49 PM. Reason : ]

1/18/2008 10:48:14 PM

man i want some damn snow

it's been too long, but usually when greg says we'll get a little it means we'll either get nothing or a blizzard

1/18/2008 10:48:15 PM

it doesnt have to be 32 or lower to snow



[Edited on January 18, 2008 at 10:49 PM. Reason : to whoever posted 33 deg on last page]

1/18/2008 10:48:38 PM

[Edited on January 18, 2008 at 10:51 PM. Reason : ]

1/18/2008 10:50:37 PM

^^yeah I know, thats not the point of what I was saying though

I just meant that it will be JUST warm enough to not get snow

1/18/2008 10:52:05 PM

Quote :

"I dont think its gonna miss us, there are no fronts coming to push it, and the winds are supposed to be northeast for the next 24 hours"

Thats not the issue. With the cold air over nc the low will fizzle as it reaches us and regenerate off coast (this usually happens in this situation).

we are supposed to get snow from the new low but it is looking more and more in the models like that low will be further and further off coast which has caused the new predictions of the most snow to be down east and a gap of no snow around chapel hill from where the old low didn't make it east enough and the new low was too far east

1/18/2008 11:08:28 PM

expect flurries, maybe an inch of snow. Thats what we're getting.

I know people have said "don't hate on the meteorologists around here" but seriously. Everytime an event comes, they say to expect 4 inches and we end up with less than one

1/18/2008 11:47:40 PM

they say to expect it because the weather forecast is to warn/notify you about things. to have you prepared. this is why the weather page isnt included in the comics.

and the problem is that snow in NC is like the only bad weather event that people actually want. you never hear people complaining "they said tornados were possible and i didnt get one, i only had a really bad storm "

oh man they warned me to be prepared for a category 5 hurricane and it was only a 2. fuck, no one died.

1/18/2008 11:56:14 PM

Quote :

"I know people have said "don't hate on the meteorologists around here" but seriously. Everytime an event comes, they say to expect 4 inches and we end up with less than one "

Usually... except that one time...

1/18/2008 11:59:39 PM

A little every now and then is fine. Just enough so I don't see the grass, and I'm happy. This coming from the Tennesseean in the valley where 2"-4" was a lot as well.

1/19/2008 12:00:05 AM

Quote :

"The "milk and bread" thing is just a quick name for the ridiculous, unfounded panic mode that retards in this area go into any time the word "snow" is included in the forecast. As if we're going to get 5 feet of snow and we'll all be stranded in our homes. This is North fucking Carolina, not Minnesota or Wisconsin."

no it's not, its the perfectly reasonable panic mode that people with families go into when they think about how bad it can get around here when it does snow. Because it is "North fucking Carolina," and not Minnesota, and there aren't anywhere near as many resources to help keep the cities going. it's just like how the people in the desert can't drive in a fucking thunderstorm. cause the roads all flood with insane "rivers" and all they can do is hope the cops get out in time and lock down the gates that stop people from running into a river that only exist when it rains.

so for a college kid or someone living alone, it might not be a huge deal. but "milk and bread" are very obviously chosen for a reason. because of how much milk and bread the average family uses. and really, who wants to drive their kids around on the ice if they really don't have to? it's not unfounded panic... it's just responsible people being cautious and making sure they and their families are all safe and fed in case one of those crazy "north fucking carolina" random ice storms comes and we do get locked inside

i really cant believe how people don't see the simple logic, and they act like people are brainwashed by the milk and bread company. and the driving, i'm not gonna drive anyone i love through tucson AZ during a thunderstorm if i can help it... and im gonna do the same in NC if there's a sheet of ice on the road. it doesn't mean i'm stranded, it means i'd rather not put myself or anyone at risk if its not necessary. i'm gonna stay inside and eat sandwiches and cereal!!!1 maybe i'm old... but i know that "people are dumb" and all that, but stocking up on food before a potential hazardous situation seems like a pretty reasonable thing to do.

1/19/2008 12:09:17 AM

Quote :

"I know people have said "don't hate on the meteorologists around here" but seriously. Everytime an event comes, they say to expect 4 inches and we end up with less than one"

The thing is, snow here is never cut and dry like it is in other places. Damned if you do, damned if you don't scenario.

1/19/2008 12:10:31 AM

this is one of the most dynamic meteorological situations on the planet and it happens here several times a year.

cold air damming
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cold_air_damming



sooo many variables in a situation like today and it makes forecasting a pain. They do a great job. NC weatherscope is more well-built to handle this compared to major models which is why wral usually gets our big events right moreso than say the weather channel

1/19/2008 12:22:27 AM

lemme see some snow now.....

1/19/2008 12:25:30 AM

^^ i'm no weatherman but i thought i knew my weather pretty well from my old nerd days. (still a nerd, these are just new nerd days!!1) -- i thought that this wasn't a wedge situation and thats why there was no talk of what type of precipitation there would be? isn't this a completely different setup/scenario than the one 2 nights ago?

[Edited on January 19, 2008 at 12:27 AM. Reason : .]

1/19/2008 12:27:00 AM

ive been told this is CAD event. there are like 3 types of CAD, ive also been told this is classical CAD, which from what i remember is the best chance to get a "lot" of snow. but it also really depends on where the Low will be, im pretty sure its been discussed already.

1/19/2008 12:33:01 AM

Waaay back when we got a foot and a half he was the only one who even came close to call it. He said something like "I'm going to go out on a limb here and say we might get as much as a foot." Every other station was still calling for 1-3 inches.

1/19/2008 12:40:40 AM

Quote :

"so many people knock them when they're off, but its only because they'd rather err on the side of making us aware of the weather that day. i really can't imagine people outside this area knocking the weatherman as much as it happens in NC when we start getting hit by hurricanes with no warning, and surprise snowstorms, and having 90 degree days when they call for 60, then people will have a right to complain. otherwise i think its pretty amazing that we have the luxury of knowing what could happen. even if it doesnt."

Yeh it sucks they get a bad wrap. I mean the difference between 2-4" and 6-12 is like getting .25" and 1" of liquid precip. Thats hard enough to predict on a spring thunderstorm. If it were any easier believe me they would try to predict it that way.

1/19/2008 1:57:06 AM

Last I heard Charlotte was predicting at least 3'' this weekend.

1/19/2008 1:59:30 AM

it is too fucking warm for this


even if the air is cold enough, whatever we get on the ground will be gone within a day

1/19/2008 2:04:47 AM

I'm not expecting much, it would be cool if the Fish was right, but I'm not thinking he's right about this one. I'm going to say 1" at the most, and it'll be mostly a rain/snow mix, so it'll just be nasty.

1/19/2008 2:06:38 AM

dnl i think missed the temperature part of the forecast... last i heard its gonna start with the cold when the stuff starts falling, and its supposed to be about 16 tomorrow night, and not get back over freezing till monday

1/19/2008 2:17:44 AM

this is what i'm guessing

it will be right around the freezing point and most will melt...then it will get cold

1/19/2008 2:19:07 AM

^^I saw a high of 36 or 38 predicted for Sunday, but they may have updated it since this morning.

[Edited on January 19, 2008 at 2:20 AM. Reason : .]

1/19/2008 2:20:04 AM

thats the fun thing about snow.

the temperature you see on the thermometer is the temperature at the ground. when water falls through colder air way up high, it creates snow

so the snow is actually a decent amount colder (relative terms) than the air at the ground. so it will still accumulate and as it accumulates, it takes a higher temperature to actually raise the whole mess to the point where it will even start to melt

and by that time, it will be down in the 20s!!1

1/19/2008 2:25:18 AM

ok so is this what you are saying:

basically as rain turns to snow it gets say "20 degrees F" and the ground temp will be say "34 degrees F" and the 20 degree snow will eventually still accumlate...THEN the air will become even COLDER therefore causing snow to not melt?

ok a) how long it gonna rain before snow in your opinion
b) how much moisture is with this bitch?

1/19/2008 2:27:33 AM

the air temp does not represent the ground temp people

1/19/2008 2:28:10 AM

actually is there anything in raleigh now? the radar on my 24 hour radar channel, channel 521 (haha) is showing a green line all the way from the left side of wake county all the way down to SC

^ground temperature like surface temperature like the temperature the thermometer says, as opposed to the temperature in the clouds. sorry we dont know the technical terms

^^ and yeah kinda, just that its gonna be frozen and its gonna hang around even though its over freezing. the temperature matters when the stuff falls through warm air first and its one of those sleet/freezing rain things. when it comes down cold enough it normally stays. there are plenty of times in boston and all where its 36 and snowing and snow everywhere

a. i think there will be like 6 inches with the most accumulated area

b. its moist but its fast. snow is something like 10" per 1" of rain. so think of it like a typical rainstorm that drops like half an inch of rain in the day. the highest area would be like 5-6" and the quarter inch areas would just get like 2-3". basically. not an expert here but i kinda know a little


[Edited on January 19, 2008 at 2:34 AM. Reason : .]

1/19/2008 2:28:28 AM

classical CADs usually have the high around Quebec, this is a more hybrid situation

1/19/2008 2:31:16 AM

maybe i'm just cynical cause we've been dicked over the past few winters

and how is the snow area so small? why isnt like all of nc gonna get this

1/19/2008 2:38:47 AM

the air temperature at the surface is the thermometer temp.

the ground temp is the temp of the actual ground and roads.

the ground temp will be above freezing but once snow hits it it will suck the heat out of it and accumulate

the air temperature will be above freezing at first snow melting into rain will cause the temp to drop some but super cold air will funnel in from the north (cad). as the cold air comes in it is heavy and will force the moisture up and out. the low will reform off the coast (away from the cold air barrier since the ocean will be warmer) and race off to the north.

its a mixture of seaping and blocking

the keys are
-how much cold air we will have at the start to have early snow

-how much moisture we will have once the cold air gets here during the middle of the storm

-and how far inland the low is once it reforms off the coast

1/19/2008 2:46:45 AM

same reason it doesnt rain in all of nc when it rains i guess. its the same kind of storms basically, just moving into a cold air so theres snow instead of rain or whatever.

in a kinda vague sense, think of it like... a hurricane thats moving toward nc. it just depends where it hits the state where its gonna bring all the weather. i guess thats decent enough to explain it like i think about it. not that trees are gonna fall down or anything.

and is there nothing in raleigh? for reasons im not sure of i think a lot of the stuff on the radar isnt actually hitting the ground so its smaller than it seems.. cause the radar shows it green over wake county

[Edited on January 19, 2008 at 2:51 AM. Reason : i'm in greensboro and they've basically called it off here. hahaha. ]

1/19/2008 2:49:47 AM

^i heard if the low comes too close to raleigh it wont be good and if it goes too east it wont be good...

[Edited on January 19, 2008 at 2:50 AM. Reason : i'll check wral]

1/19/2008 2:50:12 AM

no i mean check the actual out the window

i got a tv that shows raleigh on the radar.

news14 greensboro is calling for 2-5 there as of now, and 1-3 here. and saying that it might happen again thursday

im sure it will keep changing and narrowing down as the storm gets closer and they figure out where its gonna go. basically they can call it when it gets here


[Edited on January 19, 2008 at 2:56 AM. Reason : jamie french has a fucking CRAZY EYE]

1/19/2008 2:54:10 AM

i got to freaking go to work tomorrow 12-4pm...what do you think jackleg?

1/19/2008 3:03:33 AM

FUCK FUCK FUCK FUCK FUCK it's gonna track east

1/19/2008 3:10:15 AM

haha dont take my advice, just "kinda" know about the different situations and all. when it comes to applying it and actually forecasting it, im not willing to put my money where my mouth is. mainly cause giving an idea between 12-4 tomorrow all depends on how fast the thing moves and where it goes, and how it reacts to the cold front when it gets here and all that crap

but the forecasts ive seen on tv seem to think that it could be a slight drizzle/flurry at like 8-10, and maybe developing from that, and peaking from 4-8 or something like that

but if its snow i'd drive myself around on it if i had front wheel drive. a few inches of snow isnt bad to drive on if youre careful. ice is whats physically impossible

1/19/2008 3:12:57 AM

^^ no its not...........the new nam model just came out and they have the storm tracking considerably more northwest comparatively to the last few models. the nam is usually 6 hours behind so it is tough to take seriously until only a few hours before the storm. if you watch the radar for 5 mins youd know that were gonna see some form of precip in the next 6 hours

[Edited on January 19, 2008 at 3:19 AM. Reason : .]

1/19/2008 3:19:29 AM

I know we're going to see *some* precip, but the majority of it won't be in that "wake county swath" it was predicted to be in earlier. I see that we'll get something, but it just won't be as impressive as I'd hoped.

1/19/2008 3:22:19 AM

i dont think that matters with the amount of precipitation we have moving into the area. its looking like it might be heavy all day tomorrow. ive been extremely negative about every storm weve had in the triangle but i honestly think this one could be pretty huge

1/19/2008 3:26:10 AM

the best part is that no one has any idea whats gonna happen. even the weather nerds. even the people on tv. all you can do is wait and see where it goes.

and not take for granted we have the ability to know this storm is even out there and coming this way.

1/19/2008 3:27:05 AM

Most recent models seems to be widening the 2-3" of snow probability, expanding more of that amount north and west and reducing the size of the larger wedge to the south and east

1/19/2008 3:32:48 AM

so can we all agree that accumulation forecasting is pretty much worthless until T minus a few hours?

this thread has me interested in all the self proclaimed weather experts out there, and the meteorology majors. i want to see some of you start your own threads where you do your own forecasting. if i wanna know what the latest model says, i can go look at the graphic that the news made about it

1/19/2008 3:39:56 AM

ok this is for certain

even if it does melt immediately, there will be snow sometime while its daylight tomorrow

1/19/2008 3:42:45 AM

Quote :

"AS OF 3AM SATURDAY... DESPITE THE EVENT TIME DRAWING NEAR...THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF WINTER WEATHER ACROSS THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. "

Quote :

"BEFORE GETTING INTO WHAT THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING...IT IS VERY IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THEY ARE HAVING AN EXTREMELY HARD TIME DEPICTING THE NEAR TERM WEATHER"

Quote :

"THE MAIN ZONE WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL PLAIN TODAY...THUS THE HIGHER QPF THERE. THERE ARE ALSO VARIOUS SIGNS OF A SECONDARY AREA (IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FURTHER NORTH PRECIP) THAT MAY RESULT IN A ZONE OF ENHANCED SNOWFALL FURTHER NORTH. MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT CONSISTENT IN THE PLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE AND WE MAY NOT WHERE THE HEAVIER BANDS SET UP FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. THIS COULD MAKE UP FOR THE LOWER AMOUNTS OF PRECIP ADVERTISED BY THE MODELS. "

1/19/2008 3:43:47 AM

yep, and with that post there, im gonna state my thesis again

no one has a clue, but i sure am glad that forecasting has come far enough to predict temperature fairly accurately, and enough to warn us about storms that might hit us.

1/19/2008 3:50:25 AM

still no precip as of right now

but the sky looks like it will snow

1/19/2008 4:17:37 AM

its snowing right now

1/19/2008 4:21:12 AM